Dividend Yield - Which One Is Right?
Calculating dividend yield is easy, right? Well in concept it is: divide
the amount of dividend by the current stock price and multiply by 100
gives you the percentage:
Dividend Yield = (Dividend Amount / Current Stock Price) * 100
but in practice let's see...
Dividend Amount
If a stock pays quarterly, take all four payments and voila, you get your annual dividend amount you can use in the above calculation. The same way, for stock that pays monthly, take the monthly amount and multiply by 12. So far so good.
What about specials?
This is interesting one. Some companies pay not only nice regular dividend
4 times a year, they throw a little extra at the end as the fifth payment,
called special dividend or shortly special. A typical example
is Redwood Trust (RWT) or Novastar Financial
(NFI). They both are
Mortgage REITs
(Real Estate Investment Trust) and by law are required to pay at least
90% of their taxable earnings as dividends. To keep their REIT status,
they may in a good year pay an extra dividend (for instance in 2004).
So really, their dividend calculation would be
Dividend Yield = ((Regular Dividend Amount + Special Amount) / Current Stock Price) * 100
What about next year?
The 2 previous calculations apply to dividend amount already paid in the past
12 month period. Is the amount going to stay the same 12 months forward?
Maybe yes, maybe not. Typically, past performance does not equal the future
performance, so here is the investor's dilemma: who's right, who's wrong?
This is where company's own projections, analysts projections and your
own level of due diligence as well as faith comes to play.
For example, if you look at performance of Fording Coal Trust
(FDG) you may see a nice steady growth
in price, while the trailing yield may not be all that amazing (as of July
2005).
What drives the price? It's the expectation of dividend growth due to growing
prices of their main product - coking coal used to produce steel, driven
by increasing demand from China. Clearly, growing stock price indicates that
many believe Fording's dividend will increase going forward.
But the company said...
By the way, the fact that the company says they feel comfortable at present
with their dividend amount is by no means an indication this is not going to
change in the near future. Just look at some news of Impac Mortgage
(IMH), another Mortgage REIT. When they
changed their outlook from "comfortable with dividends" to "will review
dividend payment policy" from one quarter to another (June 2005),
stock price reacted pretty swiftly - downward. How to protect against such
price drop is a different topic for another day...
Foreign Issues
Great, you've got this urge to invest in a Canadian Royalty Trust, say
Provident Energy (PVX). So how much
money are you going to get every month? Annualized yield well over 10%, huh?
Well, not so quickly.
Foreign stocks are subject to tax withholding by foreign governments,
in this example by Canadian government. They will keep 15% of every payment
which you may or may not be able to claim back as foreign tax credit
at tax time. Also, when they declare dividend, the amount is in Canadian
dollars, so the current exchange rate also plays role! This is not to say
that CanRoys (Canadian Royalty Trusts) are not wonderful as dividend income
producing stocks!
Just something to think about and discuss with your tax advisor. They
are a good example of what you see is NOT what you get in terms of
published dividend yields.
Speaking of taxes
Some dividends are qualified for the 15% tax
treatment in the US, while others are non-qualified and are taxed
at your current income tax level. It is always a good idea to be sure which
one it is, before you
commit your money. Moreover, there are Municipal Bond funds (check
CEFs) out there,
which may be tax exempt from federal, state or local taxes or even all
of them!
The bottom line
of understanding dividend yields is this: there is no
one number that tells the whole story. It is important to understand what the
trailing dividend yield is, whether the company pays
specials and
what the projected dividend going to be in the next 12 month period.
It is no less important to understand any tax implications of dividend
income as well as any foreign exchange rates impact. All these factors
and your specific purchase price will determine your actual
dividend yield!